After a strong up
move since April 2015 around 5500 pips, the market is in consolidation since
September 2015. The Volatility goes down, we can call it a narrowing Trend
channel or a wedge, doesn`t matter, call it however you want to call it, you
see on the chart what I mean.
Since 2016 the
volatility dries even more up. We can spreak now from something like a triangle
at the end of this trendchannel. On Thursday night, markets break for a few
minutes through the low from December 2015.
Breakouttraders which
took that breakout and not out so far, are hooked now.
One thing more what
can focus our attention on this market is the fact that the market double
bottomed now exactly on the 61,80% Fibonacci Retracement.
IF the market is able
to leave that triangle and trendchannel to the upside, I could imagine a price
movement as we see it in April 2015. History repeats itself all over the time.
If the market makes the decision that the uptrend is valid and the whole thing
since 2015 was only a retracement in this uptrend, than we see the next leg up
and so we have to think about much higher prices than today.
One target could be
than the August 2015 high, but if the trend is strong and it will not double
top there, than we see even higher prices. Look at the price move we seen last
year starting in April. Nothing is impossible. Multi-week and multi-month price
moves in the FOREX market happens all over the time. Maybe we see here the
beginning of the next big one.
One thought more on
this: The Pound could recover due to lower Brexit fears and the fact that the
Pound is in the big picture not in a Trend, it`s in a big range but the New Zealand Dollar is in a
downtrend is one more sign for a
good move. So if NZD is moving
more down against the dollar and GBP is moving more up cause the market is on the lower support
area of the range, we see a strong move in GBPNZD.
So far, that`s my
thoughts on this market.