Outstanding Traders - Toby Crabel

Toby Crabel is an outstanding Trader, everybody involved in Trading should know about. He wrote 1990 the famous book Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout.

Born 1955, he starts Trading 1975 while attending College.

But the best thing about him is, he is still consistent, since many decades. He is managing funds with billions in asset, and year after year, he is profitabel. 

His book is despite the title not only for daytraders. It is also written for the multiday Swingtrader.

His methods are still valid, cause some things in price action will never change, cause the behaviour of the people who are forming the market is not changing.


Nevertheless, following blind somebody's strategy is never a good advice, but often it is possible to adopt some parts or thoughts into the own strategy. The book of Toby Crabel is one of those where the most Traders should find at least some good information for building an own strategy.

The 3 Most essential rules for Trading any financial market

If there are Trading Rules which are so essential that they could alone define a Trading Strategy, then these three:

1. Always define your Risk first and put the Stopp Order in the market.

2. First define your Risk, and put the Stop Order in the market.

3. After you defined your Risk, put the stop Order in the market. 


 No mistake. This is THE ONLY realy essential rule. 

7 Reasons why the EURO will survive and be stronger than before

In my opinion, the EURO will not only survive, he will be even stronger than before, there are some Reasons to assume that:

1. The Euro is much more stable than the most of the other currencies in the world. Since over 10 Years the currency is only moving between 1,05  and nearly 1,60 Dollar. Despite all crisis talk, the EURO remains stable.

2. If people get panic of greece debts, they should not forget, greece is for the EU what maybe Delaware is for the US. Greece has 10 Million Inhabitants, the EU has over 500 Million.

3. The EU is the biggest economical power in the world. 500 Million people - and all are developt first world countries!

4. Media likes to panic. They panic about everything, Oil is to low, oil is to high, euro is to low, euro is to high. The fact is: Just using common sense, the media-euro panic is non-sense. 

5. People from outside of the EU don't understand the EU politics. They always fear europe is on the edge to the 3. worldwar if there are some political differences between member states. Don't panic! They just searching for solutions!

6. The refugee crisis will be solved. Merkel cannot go on like before cause she has no ally anymore. The politics will change, and this change will make the EU even stronger. 

7. People see soon that socialist goverments like in Greece did not solve any problems. So this was just a lesson for non-believers, and after this lesson, things will change to the better.

5 Reasons why the Markets don't care about US elections this year

In my opinion, the US elections plays absolutly no role in the financial markets at this time, unlike it was in other years. Why is that?

1. At his time, the whole election is a mess. Media is only talking about who worse Trump may be, but they forgot, Hillary or Sanders are even worse! Markets don't like socialists. And Hillary, I'm not sure what her reasons are for going for presidency, she is absolutly powerless and she was worse already as foreign minister. In my opinion, i think it could be possible that she just want to became president for personal resons, maybe she have to show her husband that she can do also what he did? Anyway, the markets dislike Sanders AND Hillary.

2. Trump is feared by the etablishment. But he proofs he can doing business, and many people belive he would not be that offensive if he really won the elections. So markets are very calm with the outlook that he could become president.

3. Michael Bloomberg stands on the sidelines. So maybe somebody with political experience could make the race in the end?

4. The markets have quit other problems at this moment. China, Brexit, refugee crisis, EU crisis - the US elections this year could be seen as far not so important than the elections 4 years ago. 

5. Russia and China proofs that the power of US is not that great anymore than it was before. Russia makes the politics now in many parts of the world, China in other parts. So the whole election2016 is maybe seen in the big context of world economics only as a US internal affair same as Obama Care. Much more important are the development in China or the EU for the world economy.

 

When and where will the Pound stop falling?

The Pound is falling since June 2015. The Reasons behind that are clear:

In may 2015 was a election in UK. Cameron said in 2013, that IF he will be still Prime Minister of the UK after the next elections, there will be a Referendum about the question, if UK will stay in the EU or not. Since it is clear in 2015 that there will be this Brexit-Voting, the pound is falling.


Since the EU summit in february 2016 and since now the date of the referendum is clear, it's the 23. June 2016, the pound falls even faster. 

In my opinion, the situation at this moment is absolutly unclear, nobody knows who britain will vote. Markets hate unsecure conditions. So i not think the pound will stopp falling until June 23. 

Technical, the pound is in serious conditions. There is enough space now to the downside, take a look on this long term chart. There is only one last support, if this will also fall, pound will fall even fast than we saw it in the last weeks.

 

Is the Canadian Dollar back?

For me, it looks like we have a very strong indication that the Canadian Dollar ist back on track - cause we see a strong movement in all CAD related markets in favour of the CAD.

CAD Futures also turned long now. The strongest move ahead i see in NZDCAD.

So i will watch out for trades in CAD, i already short USDCAD since last week. 

Something huge is coming in ZAR

I announced last week already on twitter february 25 (you can check it on a price chart and on twitter - it was exaclty one day before the outbreak with a 4% Dailyrange came) - something huge is coming in ZAR, especially USDZAR.

I show you now what exactly i saw and still see with a chart, and i explain it.

I see a low volatility formation in a strong trending market. I see an outbreak now. I see that there is a lots of space to the january high. If this high would be reached, we coming in unspottet price territory - the market could really get out of control. 

Combine this with the political and ecomical Situation in south africa and than i would assume, there could be some good trades ahead. 

Don't forget: ANYTHING is possible in the markets. So be always careful with your own Trading. My view on the markets are no trading advice, only my personal view.